Monday, September 06, 2004

Gallup Poll Numbers

There are some interesting numbers in the latest Gallup Poll taken Sept 3-5 (I'll only refer to likely voter numbers).

Bad news for Flipper (which means good news for W)

When asked "Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide who to vote for: where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you or the leadership skills and vision that you think the candidates would have as president?"

Issues 38% Leadership 50%, Both equally 11%

When asked, "whether you agree or disagree that George W. Bush/John Kerry has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have."

Bush Agree 59%, Disagree 41%

Kerry Agree 51% Disagree 45%

When asked to "choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president this year: the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, or healthcare?"

Economy 31%

Terrorism 31%

Iraq 20%

Healthcare 15%

That means that 51% thought Terrorism/Iraq is over 50%. That's good news for Bush and BAD news for Flipper.

On who would better handle these issues, Bush dominates the national security debate:

On Iraq Bush would handle it better 54-41 percent. On Terrorism Bush is ahead nearly 30 points 61-34. Bush has expanded his lead on both these issues in the last 2 months.

On the Economy, Flipper is actually ahead, but the momentum is in Bush's favor. While the July 19-21 poll showed Flipper with an 8 point lead, 51-43, Bush now trails by only 3 points, 49-46. This category is trending upwards for Bush.

On healtch care, Flipper is ahead, 53-40, but this is typically a Dem issue and Bush has trimmed the lead since the last poll. Remember, only 15% of those polls cited this issue as the #1 issue.

Overall, the numbers look good for Bush. Things are trending in his direction on all counts, and the issues the majority of the likely voters polled cited as their #1 issue, Terrorism/Iraq, Bush had commanding leads. On the economny, whil nearly a third of the survey cited it as the #1 issue, the candidates are essentially tied.

Oh, remember how leadership, skill and vision were more important than where the candidates stand on the issues (see above)?

Bush and Flipper are essentially tied on the vision thing, but Bush has a 9 point lead on the honesty issue and is viewed as a stron and decisive leader by a whopping 60% of the voters, while Flipper is flopping around at 32%. This is all good news for Bush, especially considering they are trending his way.

Not to get too excited about just one poll, because there is a long way to go, but its good news to have good news.