And another thing

Obama lost about 8 million votes since 2008. That's a lot. Yes, Romney lost about 3 million GOP voters, so obviously, Obama won the turnout battle, but it's not as if he increased his popularity. Far from it. The election was not a demonstration of approval for Obama and his policies. It occurred me that Obama is far more loved by his supporters - cult like, as we've seen - than Romney was adored by his.

The GOP didn't want Romney all throughout the primary battle, he just won the war of attrition, namely because he had more money and support and organization. That wasn't an advantage he had in the general election. As has been the case many times (1996, 2004, etc) it isn't enough to want to get rid of the guy in charge. You have to offer something more (like Reagan did in 1980). Sure, Romney was offering something (in my opinion, far more than the narcissistic sociopath that was reelected) but as with many candidates who have been running for President since they were in grade school - being your turn isn't a good reason to vote FOR someone.

So, in the end, I don't think it is so much that the Dem coalition is necessarily larger (it might be, but obviously, not by much) but that they were more motivated to hold onto their power (an political gains) than the GOP was to undo their hold on it. Wanting to undo government tyranny isn't enough.

That's why losing the Obamacare legislative and court battles was so bad. That monstrosity is now entrenched and will wreak havoc on America, turning it into a European socialist democracy. That's why America is finished as a world power. It may take some time to occur, and there will be tangential battles in the future (over how much to hand out). But there's no doubt it's happening and there's pretty much nothing anyone can do to stop it.

9 reasons why Romney Lost

1. He was moderate - yes, he was. He ran as the conservative guy, but wasn't an ideologue. You just got the sense that his heart wasn't into conservatism all that much. 
2. Fast & Furious - it was hardly mentioned. Romney mentioned it once in a debate but only to say that answers were needed. He should have hit Obama hard with this scandal. 
3. Benghazi - Another lost opportunity. The President let Americans die and didn't answer for it. That's a huge failure. Overall, Romney just didn't present an understandable foreign policy. 
4. Waiting to the end to spend money - Romney let Obama attack him in ads all summer and didn't spend his money until the end. Yes, a lot of people wait until October to decide, but that's only after months of hearing how bad you are. Those people simply won't be open minded. The well was poisoned. 
5. Obama bought votes - Obama basically bought Ohio and Michigan with the auto bailout. Not much Romney could do about it. 
6. Lack of details - Yes, Romney had a 5 point plan, but he never really said how he'd get there. 
7. Obamacare- Romney was the worst candidate to attack Obama on this issue b/c of Romneycare. As such, he just let it slide. He only went after it as affecting jobs and stealing from Medicare. He never had a good answer why the individual mandate was ok for Massachusetts, but not the country. Also, after John Roberts rewrote the Constitution, this issue went away.
8. America is now a country of takers. Romney was wrong about 47% of the country being like that. In reality, it's closer to 51%.
9. The Media - they don't cover Obama, they cover for him. They're a national disgrace. That Romney willingly accepted MSMers as debate moderators was a mistake, too. Next time, fight for some fair and objective folks. 

so much for that

Goodbye, America. you were really great once.

Romney will win

I haven't followed presidential elections for as long as others, but I have since 1984 when I was 9 years old. In none of those 6 elections was I surprised at the results. The closest would be 2000 when I thought Bush would win be a bigger margin and it was close. In 1992, I didn't want to believe that Clinton would win, but I knew he would. The writing was just on the wall and it was a change elections.  In 1996, everyone knew Dole would lose. Bush wouldn't have lost during the wars in 2004 and 2008 was a Democrat year all the way. In each case my gut instincts were correct. I'm not writing this because my gut feelings are always right or have any predictive value, but just because I need to put these thoughts somewhere...though I do trust my gut.

So, what do my feelings say this year? Obviously, the title gives it away but I see Romney winning, and fairly handily - close to landslide proportions. He'll get over 300 electoral votes, which means he'll take Pennsylvania. The reasons my get tells me this is that the GOP is far more energized than it was 4 years ago when it was historically unenergized. The Dems seem to be a bit down this time around and there isn't enough Bill Clinton to produce a bigger turnout. 

2008 was historical for the Dems. They got a lot of new voters to polls that hadn't voted before. Many of these were low information and low common sense voters. They had a big bandwagon effect going on. People wanted to be part of an "historic" election and didn't care whether Obama actually was the guy they were told he was. A lot of us weren't fooled and knew he was a far left radical Chicago thug politician, but there just weren't enough of us.

Well, it turns out we were right and the rubes were wrong. Now, 4 years later, those Obovoters have seen that Obama is exactly what those of us on the right were warning said he was. He's no longer a blank slate upon whom people can project their wildest hopes and dreams. Hope and change actually was division and debt. As such, they've either woken up or have gone back to sleep and won't be turning out this time. There aren't enough of the angry left, union thugs and slave-mentality minorities to put Obama over the top this time. Combine the Dem turnout coming back to earth and an energized GOP and it look like a Romney win. 2010 is the roadmap. Obviously, the road ends before you get to California. The people in this state might as well be on another planet, they're so out of touch.

Another factor to consider is that the economy stinks and Obama's policies haven't made things better, but worse. He's been a partisan lefty in a right-center country. He isn't a blank slate anymore. People see who he is. They won't be fooled again.

Another reason to be optimistic for a Romney victory is the polls. Not the conclusions - those tend to be screwy one way or another. However, after digging deeper in the polls, one thing is striking and the elephant in the room - Romney is dominating among independents, usually be double digits. I fail to see how Romney can win that big among independents and not be on top, especially since there's an energized GOP base. Rasmussen says the country is +5 GOP. If that's true and Romney is also getting a big boost from independent voters, he shouldn't lose. I just don't see it. 

Finally, most of the state polls show close races in blue states - Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The candidates are spending their time and money the last week on these locations. That means Romney is on offense and Obama is on defense. None of these states should be competitive, but are. Also, the GOP has had some big success in those states in 2010. People there aren't afraid to vote Republican.

There are basically 3 outcomes possible - Obama wins a close one, Romney wins a close one or Romney wins big. I won't say each outcome is just as likely as the others, but they all have their probabilities. 

Getting back to my gut feelings, I just feel a Romney landslide coming. I would be shocked if Romney didn't win.

How sarcasm and insult took over the Democratic Party

best possible worst outcome

Obamacare's individual mandate was upheld as a tax and the whole law was upheld. Didn't see that coming. Apparently, the justices opined that the Commerce Clause did not permit the mandate, though. Conservatives won the larger argument, but lost on a technicality. I suppose this ruling is the best possible worst outcome.

My biggest fear, however, is that conservatives lost Chief Justice Roberts. Sounds as if he could be the latest in a long line of GOP court appointees to "grow" in office. Shame.

Finally: An endorsement that sways me

Megadeth's Dave Mustaine Endorses Rick Santorum

Obama Is An Awful Economic Historian