I think Trump genuinely believes the Democrats stole the election from him despite what he was told. Joe Biden hardly campaigned and Harris is widely disliked. How could that bum win? There were all sorts of Covid "emergency" measures that states implemented that made cheating difficult to detect and there wasn't much effort to detect it ahead of the election. The media and big tech conspired to keep the Hunter Biden story out of the news. The media wasn't going to treat Trump fairly as usual, but it also made sure anti-Biden news was limited. They weren't going to allow a 2016 repeat. The late night ballot dumps look suspicious, even if they're normal (maybe they shouldn't be!)
Not that there was voter fraud, fake ballots, etc, but the appearance of impropriety (or irregularity) existed, particularly to Republicans who take it on faith that Democrats cheat to win close elections, like it's an article of faith among Democrats that Republicans try to prevent minorities from voting and only win by oppressing minorities (See Stacey Abrams). The thing about faith is that it doesn't require evidence.
I don't think the J6 Committee will be able to make its case unless it can show Trump ordered people to storm the Capitol or materially supported in some way to do that. If that evidence existed, we'd have seen it already. Trump telling people things that made them angry is not enough, it's not incitement, and it's not news. It's certainly not news that Trump wanted Pence to refuse the disputed electors and have the house vote on alternative slates of electors. The use of novel legal arguments and an untested political strategy is not a crime.
Asking politicians to do something they probably don't have the authority to do is naughty, but it isn't criminal. If it is, then pressuring Joe Biden to forgive billions of dollars in student loans, which he lacks the authority to do, is a crime.
