Tuesday, October 19, 2004

How I see the race right now

Remember, national polls show popular vote, but its the state polls that matter. The red is Bush, the blue is Kerry and the white is not in either column. By my count Bush has 222 and Kerry has 194 with 122 toss ups. Looking at the slate of polls as well as history and the two pennies in my pocket, I think that New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Wisconsin are in the "leans Bush" column, while Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota are in the "leans Kerry" column. Iowa and Ohio are true toss-ups. With the leaners I have Bush with 269, which throws the race to the House of Representatives. If Bush wins either of the other states as well, he wins. If things break his way, he's looking at over 300 Electoral votes.

Make your own map here.