Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party's spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle.
"Two years ago, winning 14 seats in the House would have been a pipe dream," said Matt Bennett, a founder of Third Way, a moderate Democratic organization. Now, Mr. Bennett said, failure to win the House, even by one seat, would send Democrats diving under their beds (not to mention what it might do to all the pundits).
"It would be crushing," he said. "It would be extremely difficult."
Mr. Cook put it more succinctly. "I think you'd see a Jim Jones situation - it would be a mass suicide," he said.
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, would delight me more than seeing the Dems fall short of controlling either house of Congress. It hasn't been a good year for the GOP, but even if they lose the House or Senate, it won't be because of some overwhelming desire by people to have the Dems run their lives, but because the GOP moved too far from what got it elected in the first place: low taxes, promises to keep spending down, reducing government and confirming conservative judges, among others.