Monday, November 05, 2012

Romney will win

I haven't followed presidential elections for as long as others, but I have since 1984 when I was 9 years old. In none of those 6 elections was I surprised at the results. The closest would be 2000 when I thought Bush would win be a bigger margin and it was close. In 1992, I didn't want to believe that Clinton would win, but I knew he would. The writing was just on the wall and it was a change elections.  In 1996, everyone knew Dole would lose. Bush wouldn't have lost during the wars in 2004 and 2008 was a Democrat year all the way. In each case my gut instincts were correct. I'm not writing this because my gut feelings are always right or have any predictive value, but just because I need to put these thoughts somewhere...though I do trust my gut.

So, what do my feelings say this year? Obviously, the title gives it away but I see Romney winning, and fairly handily - close to landslide proportions. He'll get over 300 electoral votes, which means he'll take Pennsylvania. The reasons my get tells me this is that the GOP is far more energized than it was 4 years ago when it was historically unenergized. The Dems seem to be a bit down this time around and there isn't enough Bill Clinton to produce a bigger turnout. 
2008 was historical for the Dems. They got a lot of new voters to polls that hadn't voted before. Many of these were low information and low common sense voters. They had a big bandwagon effect going on. People wanted to be part of an "historic" election and didn't care whether Obama actually was the guy they were told he was. A lot of us weren't fooled and knew he was a far left radical Chicago thug politician, but there just weren't enough of us.
Well, it turns out we were right and the rubes were wrong. Now, 4 years later, those Obovoters have seen that Obama is exactly what those of us on the right were warning said he was. He's no longer a blank slate upon whom people can project their wildest hopes and dreams. Hope and change actually was division and debt. As such, they've either woken up or have gone back to sleep and won't be turning out this time. There aren't enough of the angry left, union thugs and slave-mentality minorities to put Obama over the top this time. Combine the Dem turnout coming back to earth and an energized GOP and it look like a Romney win. 2010 is the roadmap. Obviously, the road ends before you get to California. The people in this state might as well be on another planet, they're so out of touch.
Another factor to consider is that the economy stinks and Obama's policies haven't made things better, but worse. He's been a partisan lefty in a right-center country. He isn't a blank slate anymore. People see who he is. They won't be fooled again.
Another reason to be optimistic for a Romney victory is the polls. Not the conclusions - those tend to be screwy one way or another. However, after digging deeper in the polls, one thing is striking and the elephant in the room - Romney is dominating among independents, usually be double digits. I fail to see how Romney can win that big among independents and not be on top, especially since there's an energized GOP base. Rasmussen says the country is +5 GOP. If that's true and Romney is also getting a big boost from independent voters, he shouldn't lose. I just don't see it. 
Finally, most of the state polls show close races in blue states - Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The candidates are spending their time and money the last week on these locations. That means Romney is on offense and Obama is on defense. None of these states should be competitive, but are. Also, the GOP has had some big success in those states in 2010. People there aren't afraid to vote Republican.
There are basically 3 outcomes possible - Obama wins a close one, Romney wins a close one or Romney wins big. I won't say each outcome is just as likely as the others, but they all have their probabilities. 
Getting back to my gut feelings, I just feel a Romney landslide coming. I would be shocked if Romney didn't win.